Striving for Perfection

The Unreal Odds of a Perfect March Madness Bracket 

Photo by Mark Warner / CC BY 2.0

Every year, over 56 million Americans fill out a March Madness bracket, hoping to be the first to fill out the perfect bracket. The first bracket was filled out in 1977, and ever since more and more Americans have filled out their bracket each year.

From a $10 pool for the first bracket challenge to $3.1 billion a year gambled on March Madness has exploded in the United States. And while fans may not achieve perfection, over $49 million is gambled on each game yearly.

The odds of filling out a perfect bracket are nearly impossible; one in 9.2 quintillion to be precise. However, if you know a little bit about basketball, those odds decrease to one in 120.2 billion. The odds of getting struck by lightning five times in a row are more likely than filling out a perfect bracket or correctly choosing one person in the world and then correctly choosing one singular hair from that individual. The sheer number of possibilities throughout the 63 games in the tournament creates these odds to be so high, with upsets ruining millions of brackets each year.

So, no one will ever fill out the perfect bracket, no matter how many brackets they fill. The closest bracket to perfection was in 2019, when a man correctly predicted 49 out of 63 games, making it all the way through the Sweet Sixteen round. The odds of even beating this man’s bracket are nearly impossible, but that does not deter Americans from filling out a bracket.

Warren Buffet has offered $1 billion to the first individual to fill out a perfect bracket; however, with the odds being astronomically high, it is safe to say that no one will receive the money, yet every March, Americans will strive to break history.